Watching If The Market Is Free To Fly

A Sept 2019 Chart Heavy Update.

The market has rebounded into September and if it continues hints at new highs during Q4 2019. It’s time for an across the board update, and this update will be chart heavy.

As usual, let’s begin with the Top Down Summary of the entire ideas universe. There are for now more longs than sells but it is likely due to 2 reasons, the list hasn’t yet been adjusted for the last report on new leaders and the broader market’s tide is lifting more boats. The list will be updated next week and I am prepared for more LONGS.

The notional profits from the LONG ideas are more than double the gains from the SELL ideas. This is a good sign.

Just a few weeks ago, it seemed like it was all going to come down, just like a year ago.
But I love how strong the leadership in this list has been so far.

These are the Top 10 charts as of this week.

Here’s a quick Top 20 Summary chart of what has been running so far. Here’s a Koyfin link of the Top 20 LONGS that is updated periodically & you can slice & dice the list.

The Top 10 SELLS are very much the same. When something goes down the staircase month after month, it is definitely not a trend to be brave and fade. Here’s a Top 20 SELL list via Koyfin updated periodically that you can slice and dice.

Which LONG ideas have been stopped out and will not be riding along for some time?

And which SELL ideas have hit their stops? Keep an eye on the last two charts of this stopped out SELLS: Visteon and Weyerhaeuser. NOT a LONG yet but not a sell anymore. Sometimes we can harvest future long ideas to watch from this update.

Let’s go straight to charts of ideas which are doing okay and could continue to run.
Some well known companies which have moved up 10% since they were added to the LONGS list 3 months ago, incl: Coca Cola, CME, Charter and Ares Management.

Another group added LONGS universe 4 months ago, up an average 15+%, incl: insurancers, Lockheed, a solar company and a luxury brand favorite, Ferrari.

NO, it’s NOT “too late” to consider these ideas. That’s the point of this site’s coverage. The biggest winners we have have been running since March 2019, 6 months ago and may continue to do so or hit their stops. In fact, these could become leaders in Q4 2019 or next year. Many of us have seen some of these ideas suddenly become powerful.

If you don’t believe me and need something “newer” here are some charts from last month. It’s way too early to tell from a trend following with weekly prices POV but we’ll track them. Add them to your notes and we’ll see if we can go over how they’re doing in 3+ months. I see semiconductors in this lineup.

In future updates, I’ll see what the trade sizing and risk management looks like. I don’t like to look at ideas without calculating what a “Risk per share”, and estimated stop loss exit prices could be. These could all fail and get sold off for some reason.

The good. S&P 500 Futures.

The Good Again, the Dow.

The Not so Bad - the Nasdaq.

The Ugly. All those individual issues tucked within.