Rooster360: Trend Trading

Trend Following With Weekly Prices, Long Time Frames And Risk Management

A Substack newsletter by Edward Rooster

Trend Following With Weekly Prices, Long Time Frames And Risk Management

Mean Season For Mr. Market

(Winter 2018, November Update)

As has been hinted at in recent weeks, the final quarter of 2018 is about rebuilding and retrenchment - the optimist in me is prepared for better weeks to come in early 2019. For the moment, this is a time for list building, and accumulation, profit-taking (or if necessary tax-loss harvesting). As there are only a few weeks remaining for both the quarter and year, this update will most likely be the final update for coverage of Rooster360’s master ideas universe until January 2019.

Let’s go through the various weekly reports quickly and focus on relevant charts.

First, the STOPPED OUT charts (first the long ideas, then the “short”). This includes prominent sectors, when you see the Energy Exploration ETF XOP and Lowes (LOW).

Let’s move on to a filtered down view of LAGGARDS, ideas which are under-performing at the moment.

Echoing some of the hints of recent STOPPED OUT updates, the Laggards includes energy-related plays.

In the under-performing “SELLS”, it looks like there is a potential bottoming out of income/cash-flow vehicles from places like cable.

And now for the latest Top 20 updates, sells first and then longs. It’s the usual suspects in the “SELL” (or avoid or short) leaderboard. Someday General Electric (GE) will be off the board I hope - I won’t lie, it’s a strange sight to behold but a humbling lesson and reminder in the impermanence of things, the importance of embracing change and a reminder that a rising secular tide can mask management shortcomings.

And now for the Top 20 LONG leader-board. I notice that the exchanges, healthcare plan managers and healthcare equipment companies dominate the list. It’s not a “growth stock” list and that’s to be expected.

What kind of other ideas might be worth our consideration? I wanted to share an assortment of charts, that could go on our watch-lists. First the “SELLs” (avoids/shorts) and then potential LONGS. That the SELL line-up basically includes the total market in the form of ACWX (an ETF for the All World Index) is Mr. Market’s “tell”.

Let’s end on an upbeat note of potential “LONG” ideas and charts to consider. My “favorite” is the most recognizable of the lot: Disney (DIS).

I have been sanguine about the market as the “FANGS” leadership began to be tested. You can see it across the board for all growth and ebullient trades - outside the U.S. markets, the damage has already been done, and active speculation is best reduced. Active watching, list-building and investment accumulation comes to the fore. I will update the lists along with actionable material here and on other social network accounts. As the holidays of the season approach, I wish you and yours the very best.

Trend Following With Weekly Prices, Long Time Frames And Risk Management