Thinking About A Warmer Market

Q2 2019 Update reveals a rising market

The year grows warmer in so many ways. I cannot predict the near-term odds of market sell-offs or corrections. I can only report on the basis on notional profits and losses for a list of equity ideas based upon the trend-following system I have developed over these last few years - which evolved from the teachings of a generous mentor who took a great deal of time helping me to learn. The market is enjoying spring warmth.

Let’s begin with a top down summary of Rooster360’s overall notional profits & losses. It reflects an impressive amount of growth in notional long ideas gains in just the past week. The increase in the number of ideas continues from 330+ to nearly 400 in a week.

Here is last week’s top down summary, to help us understand.

And now let’s move onto the latest reports of Rooster360’s master ideas universe, the “Top 20” lists for longs and sells. First their summaries and then their charts.

Let’s look at the charts for this week’s Top 20 long ideas. Amazing to see how much has shifted in price levels and sentiments in a mere quarter of a year.

That’s not to say the rising tide has lifted all boats of course. Here is this week’s latest Top 20 sell / avoid / short ideas. Not everything leads “up and to the right”.

And now for the related sell ideas charts - a “hands off” leaderboard, unless you are adept bargain hunter.

And

And now for more charts, “long” ideas drawn from the master ideas list which were added in few weeks, presented in alphabetical order of their tickers. I have kept them simple and plain, just plain candlesticks to help light the way - “up and the right”.

Let us look at just a handful of futures contracts - that’s all we will need for now. KING DOLLAR (for now) - with a mid and rising 20s ADX. I have already written about EURUSD over the last few months so none of should be surprised at all. As for crude oil prices, it does remind us about price action from just 3 years ago.

The DAX right at the 50 week SMA. Let’s see if we are being primed for a hot Q3.

$TCEHY (HK0700) Tencent - Juggernaut of messaging and payments in China and a major component of emerging market plays. There are other more promising plays and countries to focus on in emerging and frontier but few are like this one.

The Eurodollar futures chart.

It has been three years since we’ve seen this kind of action in Eurodollars - higher sentiment for lower short-term rates to come. As I have written about with many things, 18 months is an interesting time frame to see things unfold from one extreme to another - I wonder where rates and much more will be before H2 2020. Have a great week ahead!