Review of New Market Heights

Final Week of July 2019 reveals continued market heat

The updates for this week are simple enough to post, including: Stop Loss ideas, Top Down summaries, Top 20 LONGS and SELLS, new potential ideas and top down macro views. The market’s message may also be equally simple to explain: new highs, continued gains, fewer sells are working and with all of this a likely increase in animal spirits. Let’s move through each report as quickly as we can.

The Long ideas stopped out are far outnumbered by the Sell ideas stopped out. This is no surprise and serves to reinforce a market trend which began in March 2019.

Long idea ENB has been stopped out. But there were far more SELLS stopped out.

A selection of Stopped Out SELL charts include the following - they may be candidates as longs as of Q4 2019. Keep one eye on them but not too closely.

Let’s move on to what continues to both work and lead. The Top 20 lists. The Top 20 leader-board keeps running hotter and the initial risk per share and updated final stop loss exit prices have been shared to provide a worst case scenario stop loss price. The point is to remind us that trends end eventually. They also can be volatile as they age and they are useful exit points to allow us to prevent turning a win into a loss when possible. I don’t offer estimated profit targets - I think quite often we end up hurting ourselves with over-clever jumping in and out of long-time frame trends. Being right and sitting tight is not just a Livermore inspired trading motto, it’s an aspiration.

The Koyfin Top 20 LONGS list link has been updated for your review. The Top LONGS based on the past month’s performance includes the following leaders.

And now for the Top 20 SELLS leaderboard. Again, I offer risk per share and updated suggested stop loss exit prices on the SELL trends that are tracked. The point, as in long ideas, is to keep us from getting hurt with overstaying our welcome with winning trends turning into losing positions.

Again, the Koyfin Top 20 SELL list link update is provided for your down-trend notes. Some SELL charts, based on the past month, include the following decliners.

And now for 20 LONG ideas not in the Top 20 LONGS leaderboard which are also doing well and may continue to do so. Nothing is necessarily “too late” to trade.

The top down views of futures charts are shared to give us a sense of trends. The message is clear: we continue to go higher. We can’t time it but we can manage risk.

Energy charts are not a part of this story.

As for US Treasuries, we should be cautious but not overly ambitious about shorting.

The US Dollar remains strong - this is a shocking development. I’m not talking book, I have been watching for signs of weakening USD but not yet so far.

The Yen is one to watch as well.

These updates are primarily for U.S. equity focused investors and traders, so they are doing well. The summer heat continues to grow hotter with each passing week. Stay cool and stay focused on your risk management rules no matter what.