This year’s financial markets were a feast of everything. It was the market alpha and omega. Death, life, love, loss and longing were on the line this year.
A paragraph intended for sibling site “The Big Stack”, which haphazardly covers ideas more than investments, explains my awe, and then we’ll cover the charts and trends.
“We had the following, including:
Massive spikes and massive breaks. Negative oil. Negative yields. Bitcoin in winter and summer within a 6 month span. Electric cars, power storage and solar back in action. Blank check ebullience. You name it we have in stock (except for paper towels, PPE and cleaning supplies) as a stock to trade. This year is a bookend to a decade of “old” private companies and new tech ideas fed on the financial food of the gods, private equity, born in the ashes of the last era of the “00s”. The odd midwives of market giants for the 2020s could be on the cover of Time magazine by 2030. Some VC deals were getting so big and so late stage that SPACs are the “Z round”. The lines between everything have blurred in “moneyness”. If you’re wondering about the death of the dollar go google about how Eurodollars work and the shortage of USTs globally. This year was all about numbers and statistics in everything (again) and what is real and what is not real. 2021 will be the year we exhale.”
On to the charts and trends, I wrote enough fluff above. Let’s focus on essentials.
Let’s move quickly through this week’s updates. We are at the 6 month mark or so in an 18 month process. I will have to check. (It is week 29 of our 18 month experiment.)
Let’s go through the lists as quickly as possible.
The Top 20 has an interesting array of businesses in the lead.
This is not a market for the faint-hearted. The mix of ideas hints at the breadth.
Charts from the Top 20 includes the following:
Lumber Liquidators (LL). This is a promising hint at better days ahead.
Roku (ROKU)
Invitae (NVTA)
The following chart includes the worst performers as of this week. Not many.
Agenus (AGEN). Drug development is difficult and very binary in terms of risk.
This chart has a few of the New 20 ideas, there’s a lot more shared in my new build.
Alcoa (AA). A massive turn has been made, and it’s early days from the look of it.
For a LOT more you can go to the following resource I’m building:
Last week’s launch of trend tools continues with more tweaks and updates coming.
We have the entire list of longs and sells for those with the time to drill down.
We have the total New Ideas as of this week (and last week’s as well).
We have a page of links which include an Airtable variant (tested for a Google Sheet integration), links to Koyfin dashboards for the latest Top 20 New Ideas, and Finviz.
We have a page of media (charts & video) for each week’s trend takeaways.
The objective of each post is to provide a fast read of a few critical trends but what I’m creating and sharing in addition is meant to provide a lot more for those how have the time, interest, and need for more. This resource will evolve as will this newsletter.
A Personal Note (no need for you to read, there’s nothing about specific trades):
I wrote the other week about dad being offered shares of a young tech company called “Apple”. I suppose the certificates, if he chosen to go old school, would have looked like the ones posted by one of my favorite long time “follows”, Brian Roemmele. If I got the math right, just a few shares would have amounted to a nice little 6 figure sum. All it took was time, execution and some profitable chaos over a few decades.
We never know and that’s why it’s all very simple but never easy at the same time.