Mr. Market's Ascent Into Thin Air
Final Update for 2020
This will be the final market update for 2020. We finish the year at new heights.
This market has seen everything. I wrote the other week that it was the “Everything Market”, and that we’ve seen it all, from market devastation to disruptive new futures.
Here are this week’s Top 20 leaderboard (via Koyfin dashboard), as well as a total ideas page which has hundreds of ideas on this Trend Trading Notes Page updated regularly.
The Top 20 leaderboard includes the following idea: Square (SQ) up 140% since its June 2019 (re)addition to the ideas list. It was on the list a while ago and it’s back.
Another Top 20 is Snapchat (SNAP), on the list since July 2020.
Another Top 20 idea also on the total ideas list since July 2020 is Tesla.
Tesla is the current market’s poster child. It will lead the market’s trend.
Reminder that there is a links page, “Trend Trading Links”, which includes:
An Airtable variant of the total ideas (long and short).
The current Top 20 ideas (via an updated Koyfin dashboard).
The last few weeks of Substack posts for reference.
The latest New Ideas list (also via an updated Koyfin dashboard).
Finviz pages for the “Top 20” and “New Ideas”.
The latest standout charts based on the current Top 20 and new ideas lists were posted based on a quick scan of what could be the most compelling trends with long runways.
Take your time with all the resources: the total ideas page is at 500+ ideas and counting. The new ideas as of this week are posted on its own page stored as “Trend Trading New Ideas”. For now I have included a few prior weeks as an archive for you.
Near-term movers, which did not make the “cut” for the latest weekly Top 20 and New ideas pages include the following consumer business rebounding charts:
Shake Shack (SHAK)
Michaels Stores (MIK)
MGM Growth Properties (MGP), an entertainment and leisure REIT
While these charts have good potential, I do not get a sense that these are secular trend change charts which you could invest in for long time frames.
One page I want to point out is a “Trend Trading Media” page with links and charts feature what are takeaway observations from the latest update. You will find this helpful as a “big picture”, “top down” or “macro” resource for massive secular trends.
We go behind NEW IDEAS and include multimedia on this “Trend Trading Media” page covering these ideas as potential secular trends which could have long runways.
This week: Bitcoin, Biotech+Defense, and Games are on my mind. Look past today.
Closing thoughts on Mr. Market:
The big picture is of a market on fire. So much has happened since the lows of the first quarter of this year, when it all seemed like Mr. Market’s show was about to be shut down indefinitely. The anxiety will only increase as the market moves higher.
The most interesting takeaways include biotech, “insecurity” (i.e. defense industry), games, and maybe uranium too, are booming. Even if there were a correction, these could form new bases and keep moving higher in the years to come. We will see.
It’s natural to have a fear of great heights because we know of the risk and danger of falling after such a long incredible ascent. You have to keep climbing but arrange for safety harnesses so that you can keep going after inevitable corrections.
Personal Note (You do NOT have to read it, there will be no trading or investment ideas here)
This is a very bad week. I’m not talking about the markets at all. My dad is in the hospital and all is not well. This is his third trip in 12+ months. I am filled with anxiety, dread and worry about what is to come because I’m not sure how it all unfolds in the near-term. Nobody in life is really in charge of the big picture, we just do our best to manage ourselves and our place in a constantly changing landscape. I don’t know. The markets have always been simple in comparison with the real challenges of life but I didn’t always know that back when I first started investing. I wish now that all that I had to worry about was trading or writing and creating more frequently.
My greatest relief this past week was after the snows fell - an hour plus of shoveling helped me push aside the dread hanging overhead. Not long after I was taking calls again from specialists each with their piece of the puzzle of dad’s hospitalization. I miss how it was, a long time ago, when I was very young and Dad would have me skim a “red herring” and asked me what I thought about some company or have me on the phone with a broker talking about some idea. I remember when Dad told me to watch out for a margin call in one of his trades, and I completely flubbed it when the broker called and she told me about a margin call - Dad wasn’t mad, he was calm and in control. He was too busy working two jobs, and as hard as things were at times it was better than his childhood. I miss those days and more.
Take care of yourselves, look after each other. Help your friends. Be forgiving of others. Learn to listen and not just talk. Understand that what you really think matters might actually turn out otherwise and that the things you take for granted will be cause for hard-earned experience and life lessons. What you are flexible about should be fixed in place and what you’re fixated on should be treated with flexibility.
I’ve wrote a lot here but those who matter don’t mind, and those who mind don’t matter.
To my friends who have been kind, supportive and understanding, I say thank you and I wish I could give you hugs, like people used to give each other in the days before the virus. For now it’s gladly given gratitude and metaphorical hugs. You helped me a lot.
I wish you all a safe, healthy and happy holiday time. I’ll see you all again in a little bit of time - I will see how things go. Take care.
Thanks for the great market insight, as ever, Edward. I am keeping good, hopeful thoughts for your dad. May you have peaceful holidays.