Memorial Weekend Update

Mr. Market Increasingly On Guard During Q2 2019

Commentary about this past week’s market price action often includes phrases like “cash working” or some version of that and it’s no surprise. Let’s move quickly through charts - most, in fact, probably all of you are busy and hopefully have a nice long weekend in store. We’re going to focus on really two types of charts for this update: ideas which hit their stop loss exit prices and the Top 20 LONG charts.

First up here are about 2 dozen charts of various ideas which hit suggested stop loss exit prices.

Quite a selection of stop loss exits. We shall see them again in the future but not anytime soon. Onward to the Top Down summaries from this week and last week - in short, you made money if you were “short”. These are notional profit and loss figures based on a theoretical single trade in each idea of the current ideas universe, risking $500 per idea and then dividing that by “risk per share” (which is simply a multiple of an average weekly trading range). Here is this past week’s Top Down Summary first. It’s still about 500+ ideas in the universe now, up from 0 just 3+ months ago but the gains in “short” ideas has exploded up from last week.

Here is last week’s Top Down Summary.

The other takeaway is that some ideas will continue to keep working for now.
Let’s focus on charts from this point on. First the Top 20 SELLS summary only
and then end with the good news of the Top 20 LONGS summary & charts.
The Top 20 SELLS summary - it’s a rough list of ideas to be wary of if you’re long.

Here’s the Top 20 LONGS summary and the charts for this lineup of wins.

The “EBAY” of LatAm, Mercadolibre, and Shopify, the SaaS that puts the shopping cart in many small businesses, continue to run. Speaking of SaaS, see Atlassian!

I just love GPN’s chart - so placid in comparison to other trends. Payments!

SWIPE RIGHT and UP is the price action for Match Group.

There are pharma plays on the list as well, it’s not all just SaaS.

Caution on CCC.

This has a few of the “glamours”in what has not been a glamorous broad market tape. Let’s review the tape from the top down - it’s a rough one. First crude oil.

The Dow is moving down right to the longer averages. Here I use the 50 week SMA. As are the Nasdaq and the S&P 500. No wonder we see a lot of “cash” talk lately.

The Russell 2000 has already broken past the 50 week SMA… AGAIN.

The BRITISH POUND. You didn’t need to watch the news about PM May. Just this.

The EURO continues to be weak over these longer time frames. Beware a bounce.

BONDS. This is where things have been happening for awhile.

Day to day, this will bounce around but week to week for months it’s all about USD.

So I guess, yeah, it really has been about cash hasn’t it?

If you observe it, please have a wonderful Memorial Day weekend.