Market Rebound

Q2 2019, Large Market Bounce This First Week of June 2019

This week began with doubt due to recent declines, but then bounced (yet again) and ended with revived spirits. Mr. Market is without a doubt the craziest business “partner” investors and traders must learn to endure. Let’s review this week’s update.

The “Top Down Summary” reflects a massive rebound in gains for LONG ideas.

The prior week’s Top Down summary was considerably gloomier in comparison. This week’s notional profits for longs was 100+K, a giant leap from last weeks’s 37+K. The notional profits for “shorts” was about 43K, a drop from 62.5+K last week. Total gains went from 100K to 145K thanks to this week’s massive bounce.

The Top 10 Best and Top 10 Worst lists for LONGS and SELLS show us which ideas from the currently 500+ ideas universe are working.

Shopify and AMD stick out. They had both been in the dumps not so long ago in 2018 but we see how things can change relatively quickly.

When something breaks, it can stay broken for a long time or indefinitely. The SELL ideas can help protect us from what could be at best, a sustained mispricing that gets and stays “cheaper”, or permanently impaired value. As a trend follower, we simply follow price and monitor trading size and risk. Either way we reduce emotional pain.
(If your research and analysis say otherwise, that there are true bargain values, then prepare yourself for the responsibility of watching a position remain “mispriced”.)

Presented below are the leading LONG ideas charts, pulled from the “top 20”.

AMD is BACK along with other chips.

Match Group is a juggernaut - the price again swipes UP and to the right.

One of my “favorites”. Progressive. Both a trend and genuine investment great idea.

No caffeine jokes, just respect for this steady rise for a pre-WeWork meeting place :)

Atlassian, a part of a cohort of impressive SaaS leaders. Amazing.

The Koyfin Dashboard Long Trend List

The Koyfin Dashboard Short Trend List

I like presenting very simple weekly price charts. I like being careful to strip away the biases we bring to a simple observation of human behavior underlying investment price moves. I don’t just mean sentiment but how we change discounting future returns, how we estimate future earnings, price for recent events, decide if cash or an investment is better to “go long”, if living expenses or credit / margin decide we can risk more or risk less and so much more - all reduced to an ever shifting quoted price.

Presented below are the “Top 20” LONGS and SELLS LISTS.

And now for the Top 20 SELLS to help give us a warning list.

Not all ideas will work out as LONGS or SELLS. We just don’t really know but we can go with strength - all the discounting by the market of the information related to an idea reduces to price and an investment continues to do well then we should “follow”.