Gloomy Onset for Final Quarter of 2019
First Weekly Update for Q4 2019
|Edward Rooster||Oct 7, 2019|
The market does not inspire complete confidence based upon recent price action.
I remain optimistic that while we will find leaders that will finish the quarter and the year it may not be inspiring. The shift in leadership took only a few weeks and it points towards a less ebullient atmosphere in the near-term. I caution against an excessively “bearish” stance however. Nothing has happened yet like a year ago.
The Koyfin Trend Trading lists have been updated for the week. The long list and the short sell lists are free for your notes and as a reference on trend trading leadership.
The current temperature of Mr. Market based on a top down summary is tepid.
Gains from LONGS are up 5% from last week and total gains are about 185+K
BUT gains from SELLS up 33+% from last week total gains about 105+K
There were only 3 stopped out ideas
Here are the latest TOP 20 LONGS in summary, with updated stop prices. As an idea’s price trend continues, estimated stop loss exit prices are updated, usually after a 10% notional gain, and then as it passes 25 - 30% and then from 50 to 60%. After a 50 to 60% gain, a trailing stop loss based on the closing weekly price, trailing 4 to 8 weeks, is used — the stop loss price for longs is never lowered and is always ratcheted higher.
The Top 20 SELLS as of this weekend have been updated — it’s a slow moving list.
What are some LONG ideas that might be worth a look? Here are some ideas which have still have about a 10% gain since their addition to the ideas list.
Owing to time constraints, this update will forgo the top-down macro/futures chart review. At the moment, the market action is subdued and not a hot growth stock environment. Income plays, utilities, and this means less aggressive trades. I remain optimistic for 2020 and am building watch and “shopping” lists for accumulation.