Family Holidays Q4 2019 Update

Update for the final weeks of 2019 and a long decade

This will be a fast update.

My father is very ill. In addition to my father, someone else close to me has been under a recurring series of crises. I am under the gun. I also learned of a friend and role-model who has been given the worst of news. I am lucky to be alive - life’s humbling.

The market is the easiest part of the big picture. Some of you know this better than me - but the newbies among you have yet to understand that the market is simple. It’s ourselves, our lives and other people that should deserve the important hard work.

I used to get bothered by the minor ups and downs of my disappointments & glimmers of hope, and the nonsense of worrying about what others think. That was dumb of me.

I don’t care anymore. I’m focused on more important matters and improving things.

Being a reader of Rooster360’s free bounty of information is demanding. Only those with enough patience and persistence can recognize how has been created and shared over these last few years (going back as far was when this was an early WP site).

To those of you who have been around perhaps as long as 5+ years all I can say to you is thank you very much. You have been the reason I keep trying my best with this site.
(As for those in search of free easy answers I wish you good luck, there is plenty on twitter and discord to keep you feeling like you’re “getting things done”.)

I’m going to post updates and then move on to other things, like longer-term projects and relationship building. Most of all, I’m keeping an eye on Dad, and the future.

Here are 10 long charts (pulled from the Top 20 as of this week. There’s a Koyfin free Top 20 link to the Top 20 LONGS.

That was just some of the long charts and some notes. I think for those of you who have been long term readers (as in 3+ years and frequent open rates) I’ll see if I can put together notes or arrange for private email exchanges - no promises, it’s case by case.

There’s also a Top 20 SELL list and of course a corresponding Koyfin Top 20 Sell list.

I wrote in the last few updates what I see happening. I see a “thaw” in what could have been a long painful winter. I see the contrarian overhang (a/k/a divergence) but we can’t work off of that can we as price and trend FOLLOWERS. We got to focus on risk-sizing and surf what waves come our way. So far it’s worked for me and it can for you.

Case in point. I took one of the rarest “signals” in that I don’t like fancy signals but I took it with an eye to H2/H3 2020. I posted the idea as part of a list of “double secret probation” “Lumpy Returns” ideas which I thought had a decent and boring shot at doing well. It was the “craziest” “no other option but do it” position I took on Dec. 26, 2018. My personal constellation of stars lined up and I bit the bullet.

If I see more of these, I’ll post it to my “double secret” probation mega long time frame trend trade but like AAPL, it has to have the right “bells and whistles” to make sense. I’ll post them and not make a big deal of them. In fact, from time to time I post such charts and then I see folks unfollow (probably in reaction to “hey came here for simple ideas I can flip in a few days for one of those painful must have 90% win rate systems”).

You have to understand. I had no time to actively trade on shorter time frames. I had to choose something simple plus cash plus a lot of time (18+ months minimum). So I chose from less than a handful of “lumpy return” very long time frame trend ideas.

Here are a list of ideas that are modest in return over the past quarter. But it’s your starting point for consideration.

Here is a mini-spreadsheet of them for your notes - plus “risk per share”, the most important detail in my opinion. Take that figure and divide the amount you can risk losing by that “risk per share”. That is your trade size, like it or not for trend following.
You can’t outsmart uncertainty or unpredictability. You can plan for it however..

I want to do macro top down views of futures charts but maybe that will have to wait. My mind is on something that “new follow” Josh Wolfe commented on re: Index funds and something that could be followed by a re-emerged 'lumpy return’ technique but it’s not for the faint of heart, the impatient or the undisciplined for the 2020s.

This was a chart I referenced the other week. ACWI. My proxy for “everything” equity.
I saw it hit highs 2 yrs ago with “ready to correct” signal with a 18+ month time frame for resolution. This is going to be a fascinating and terrifying contradictory market.

Good luck to everyone. If you observe Thanksgivings Day, I wish you and yours a safe, healthy and happy time - that’s important. Much more than any of this stuff I post.

I’m going to be gone for a while - for those of you who know me, go ahead and feel free email me with questions for thoughts about the markets or anything you wish. Best.