These times have both exceeded and confounded everyone’s expectations - this is a market telegraphing large moves higher in the financial markets. But that’s not going to happen in every sector and industry. Strength begets strength. The weak stays weak. There is also a widening of the markets - more ideas are moving higher. As usual, I want to share a fast read of what’s working and what’s not in trend following stocks.
The Top Long 20 as of this week include the following ideas.
The charts from this lineup include the following: Snapchat is the most dramatic. I regret not owning more of it of course but perhaps I will regret owning too much of it later on. The markets don’t know or care about what we own or don’t own.
Fintech, like Square, continues moving forward. I understand the narratives are sanguine about valuation with an overhang of consumer activity as a driver falling.
Animal spirits and a different kind of spirits, alcoholic brands, go together. Underneath that is the rise of non-alcoholic alternatives. I saw Sam Adams founder Jim Koch tout his latest 0.5% abv “non-alcoholic” offering as a new breakfast drink.
I remain focused on fintech on all time frames. Something is unfolding fitfully.
The Worst longs for the week include the following ideas.
The worst ideas include the following charts: Amgen is one of them.
News Corp is also in this underperforming basket. It’s rolling over slowly.
The stopped out ideas include the following as of this week. Quite a few.
The stopped out charts are always educational. They teach so much - perhaps more than winners and underperformers. Stopped out ideas remind us that even our favorites and strongest ideas stop being that at times - sometimes for good. They also remind us that ideas we don’t agree with or like can take on a life of their own and keep going “despite” what we think we know or feel.
Precious metals have paused their run. (And yet Crypto continues. Consider that.)
Mastercard is a surprise. It may be a brief interruption of a broader move, we’ll see.
Union Pacific is also another surprise.
The new ideas as of this week include the following tickers - an interesting range.
Some charts from the new ideas which helps me to remember visually.
The new ideas, which could all fizzle out as quickly but here they are to review. Some of last week’s ideas have done well like The Gap (GPS) (which is leaving all malls).
The charts of new ideas include the following, including agro, storage, food, industrial and mid-cap. There is a widening range of ideas that are moving higher.
A lot of thoughts on my mind.
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Personal Note (No charts or trading ideas here, and no need for you to read)
My heart is heavy. Someone I looked up to and was glad to know as a friend has passed away. A whole lot of people feel the same way. Anyone who knew Jon Boorman feels a loss. It’s not fair and it’s a reminder that life is not fair but we have to do our best.
Brian Lund wrote a wonderful elegy to Jon as did Michael Batnick. That’s a sign of real success and wealth: being remembered and cared about as Jon was. It goes beyond the charts and numbers, so far beyond it. So much to learn from Jon beyond markets.
I “met” Jon over 8 years ago and then “IRL” later on. In the beginning he was an inspiration and someone whose work was a catalyst for my way of looking at trading and risk. He “worked in public” by sharing his charts and it was amazing to me. It’s a joy and privilege to meet someone and they exceed your expectations of who you thought they are. Jon was a good person, kind and he made it easy to be his friend.
We talked about collaborating on a trend following project - we discussed things like legacy and attitudes and it was so great to be in sync. A while later however he told me about his illness, Glioblastoma, and it wasn’t in the public “fin twitterverse” yet, so I kept my mouth shut and I hoped that his treatments would work and that life would be kind to this dear man and his family.
My mentor was gone, as well as a close friend who was a fellow "student” of my mentor - both had passed away in different ways. Some important role models, friends and pivotal figures in my thinking about markets and life are gone now. It makes the ritual of doing these notes very personal and important - I can’t let the flame they help light fade out. I want to hold onto their memory - I don’t want to lose this.
It’s been a strange daily life when it comes to looking after Dad. The other day I saw archived photos on a new smartphone, which showed me pics of my parents from just a few years ago, not long after I launched the original Wordpress for these posts. It has been hard years for them and it’s hard to be reminded of the physical and emotional toll, from a few years of constant small losses, as loved ones fade slowly.
I have gone on too long here - these words are blunt and uncomfortable for a reader but since I put them at the end it doesn’t matter, many of you won’t see this. Those who matter don’t mind, and those who do mind don’t matter.
Take extra regular time to tell your family and friends how much they matter to you, and how much you remember all the good moments sandwiched in the back-and-forth, and up-and-down. Such sandwiches’ bitter greens mixed in with savory fillings makes for a complex and rich experience. Do your best. It’s not easy but it’s a must.
I wrote this reminder to myself and posted it online.
I repeat it here for you my friends:
Did you do your best?
If yes, then good.
If not, then start now and keep going.