This is about week 22 of an attempted 18 month experiment to track weekly trends.
My friend Michael G. Lamothe, a veteran trader of the IBD/Williams school of trading, teacher and coach, mentioned cup formation. I see a chart from John Boik, also of IBD fame. Short version, if these price chart formations fail, they fail, but if they don’t then there may be a large number of long side winners coming.
John Boik posted this chart - it’s a top down view and hint at what may unfold.
We will see if these formations hold and lead to new highs.
Let’s go quickly through the updates for strongest longs, sells, worst performing longs and new potential longs. I want to keep this format fast and easy to skim.
First the strongest long charts as of this week.
So far so good with some of these longs running since summer and so far so good.
(Nautilus was there long before Peloton was just a Kickstarter campaign idea.)
Peloton has taken many on long biking trips in their homes with network effects.
The worst 10 longs as of this week are merely tepid underperformers. Not every idea will do well - that’s why risk is a reality you all most manage.
The top sells as of this week include the following, mostly bearish ETFs. So they should in this price trend environment. Short selling has been losing for a long time.
Some possible new longs include the following ideas
It’s always interesting to see some familiar names. After a while everything becomes familiar - so many are signaling for more to come.
So many “setups” emerging, just as more informed and technically minded traders have observed.
A final word on this - nothing is guaranteed. This could all come unglued at any time.
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(Personal note: no need to look at this, there is no stock market/trading content here.)
I am overdue for a dopamine diet and more. For all things, there is a time for running and there is a time for rest - a time to build and a time to restore - a time to start and then a time to stop. This past year has delivered a message that if my loved ones are allowed by the powers that be a reset, it will be an opportunity to rest - a body can only go on for so long - whether it’s a person or the body of entire family, community or populace. I also long overdue for a reinvention - family and friends alike, those who know me, see what’s under the surface - what can still become and still be done. We’ll see.
I write at times about other things but not really here. I started this to continue the deliberate practice of being retaught and retrained by a mentor about markets. My mentor passed away but devotion to the practices remain - as if it were a monastery.
I wrote about Amazon and writing, about how one of my favorite books, Frank Herbert’s Dune, helped me understand Snowflake, and about Apple’s S Curve journeys. I want to delve deeper into the cross-trends of the decade. Things that are just experiments and passion playthings today will become enterprises and industry practices by 2030. That’s not trend trading, that’s trends. So many trends out there.
But all the biggest trends to me are about things that not only “don’t change in 10 years” but haven’t really changed in a 1,000 years - that’s the realm of history and mythology. The future has no importance, if it’s not rooted in foundations of the past.
(Speaking of the past, did you know that one of the most popular toppings for bagels, Lox, is a word with 8,000 year roots? Think of the network of ideas and trade involved.)
That’s the “Big Stack” which my friend JS Mian told me to think and write about when he saw me reframe the past decade as the age that followed the last age (“The Big Short”). I wrote last summer 2019 about the SPAC that helped to usher in the current rage, Virgin Galactic. When “it was time to build”, I was inspired to think about the God Hephaestus - who the Romans called “Vulcan” - to me he was the “God of the Makers” with his hammer, and I thought of Mark Cuban and Sam Parr.
But it’s not all tech. I wrote some notes to myself about how people were made for each other and will find ways to gather together. We are the gathering places.
I needed to go on too long here. It’s not easy helping look after Dad at times. I miss how it was and how he was just a year ago. I miss the relative quiet of things before it was made quieter in different ways since then. I long for a reset and reinvention for it all.